Labour made slight progress in last week's council by-election in Dundee, increasing its share of the first-preference vote from 30 per cent in 2007 to 31 per cent this time round. Of course, the
headline news was that the SNP wrested the vacant council seat from Labour, taking them within touching distance of controlling Dundee City Council, which is currently run by an 'unholy alliance' of Labour, Lib Dem and Conservative councillors.
Indeed, the SNP increased its vote by a bigger margin than Labour - by three per cent to 48 per cent - and the nationalists' advance seemed to be at the expense of both the Lib Dems and the Tories, who lost a couple of percentage points each to take them to 11 per cent and 7 per cent of the first-preference votes respectively.
However, the purpose of the headline above is to underline two issues. First, that the SNP's claim of some kind of minor political earthquake - a la the Glasgow East Westminster by-election - is slightly misplaced; in fact, the party could have
lost a significant share of the vote, and as a corollary Labour
gained a significant share, but would still have registered a nationalist gain from Labour.
In turn this leads to the second issue - that the 'fair votes' of the proportional representation system can effectively mutate into a cruder quasi-first past the post affair in a by-election scenario. Of course, the STV system is a complicated beast, but in both 2007 and last week the SNP's percentage share of the first preference votes was in the mid-forties, while Labour secured around thirty per cent in both counts. In 2007 the system afforded SNP two of the seats in the three-member ward, while Labour had one councillor elected, which seems intuitively fair.
However, with only one seat up for grabs in a by-election contest it's hardly surprising that the most popular party will win it, but if this seat had been won by a less popular party at the initial poll courtesy of STV then the fairness disappears - the SNP now control all three seats in the Maryfield ward while last week securing less than half of the first-preference votes.
Of course, to an extent the SNP can claim that this provides some redress regarding the claimed unfairness of the already largest party in terms of councillors being prevented from getting their hands on the levers of power by the unholy alliance - the (de facto*) coalition can reasonably have been said to have benefitted unfairly, while now the tables are turned and it's the SNP's turn.
SNP control of Dundee City Council is not, of course, a foregone conclusion. Independent councillor Ian Borthwick is being posited as a 'kingmaker'; his support could result in the nationalists taking control of the council, although the Dundee press
quotes Mr Borthwick as suggesting a cross-party administration, but the other parties have poured cold water on this idea. It's also been
reported that an SNP approach to the Lib Dems has been ruled out. However, the nationalists are also making overtures towards the Tories, and given the political promiscuity evident in Dundee nothing can really be ruled out; there's certainly evidence to suggest that current Labour support from the smaller parties is born of matters like personal advancement, the more lucrative convenorship positions and simply power for the sake of it rather than any grand ideological considerations, and given the lack of substantive opposition in Dundee it's arguable that the SNP's bid for power is based on similar motives, not to mention the usual party political tribalism and flag-waving.
However, although politics in Dundee normally seems a fairly non-contentious business, occasional spats do arise, but again this seems mainly resulting from party political machinations and opposition for the sake of it rather than anything more substantive. For example, the run up to the by-election saw the Labour administration leader accuse the SNP of pressuring the Scottish housing regulator to release a report damning of Dundee City Council in the critical few days before the poll. In turn, as well as understandably making hay over the criticisms the SNP group leader has threatened to report the Labour councillor to the Standards Commissioner. Meanwhile, the city's only independent councillor has predictably
called for the bickering to stop and for the parties to instead address the shortcomings highlighted by the regulator and put council employees and tenants first.
That's not to understate the importance of these issues nor, of course, to suggest that criticism and accountability is undesirable. But these issues seem more administrative in nature rather than anything that should be associated with ideological considerations in general or party bickering and politicking in particular.
Indeed, from a personal perspective I've never noticed any real difference regarding the stance of Dundee's parties in relation to my own particular local interests. Thus the question is: apart from the parties themselves and the more politically-motivated members of the public, if power changed hands in Dundee would anyone really notice?
*Labour and the Lib Dems are in formal coalition, while Conservative support for the administration is described as "informal".