MacBlogosphere - Summertime blues or winter of life?

Below is an extended version of July's 'MacBlogosphere in decline' post, which appears as an article in the recently published 2010/11 edition of the Total Politics Guide to Political Blogging in the UK. In addition to the well-established league tables for the various categories and related 'State of the [...] blogosphere' pieces, this year's guide also contains numerous articles on blogging and its impact, and there are also several essays on the Twitter phenomenon.

I suppose it's all a bit anoraky and introverted, but for keen bloggers and Twitterers/Tweeters(?) it's a must read and handy reference guide. It can be purchased from the Total Politics website and Amazon, and no doubt via other sources.

The estimable Malc - previously of 'in the Burgh' fame, and now blogging on the collaborative Better Nation - does this year's State of the Scottish Blogosphere piece, and it's interesting to contrast his more upbeat assessment with my own below. Indeed, despite having only read a handful of the articles in the book my own piece could well be the most pessimistic of the lot, so no change there then!

Please note that the following was written on the assumption that the readership would have limited MacBlogosphere knowledge. The earlier version was pitched towards existing MacBlogosphere authors and readers.


MacBlogosphere - Summertime blues or winter of life?

Is the Scottish political blogosphere past its sell-by date? As someone relatively new to the 'MacBlogosphere' I'm probably not the person best qualified to provide the definitive answer, but my short(ish)-term perspective on the issue is that there are indications of a long-term malaise, and some evidence points towards a permanent decline in the medium.

Of course, the blogosphere is ephemeral in nature and neither this nor its slightly anarchic nature lends itself to statistical or scientific analysis, but at a more intuitive level recent months have certainly seen a downturn in MacBlogosphere activity, while the longer-term trend seems to indicate the gradual retreat or retiral of the big hitters, with little indication of these being replaced by new talent likely to set the heather alight.

The short-term torpor is perhaps easily explainable. Of course, there was always going to a degree of blogging fatigue in the wake of the general election earlier this year and, in particular, many bloggers will have felt thwarted by their own personal disappointment at the result. Then there's the nice summer weather, the holidays and distractions like the World Cup, not to mention factors personal to particular bloggers and affecting their enthusiasm or ability to pound the keyboard. On the other hand, the Scottish Parliament elections will take place in May next year, and the unprecedented UK political scenario since May's Westminster elections has provided ample material for bloggers to get their teeth into.

But in a wider context perhaps the general election will prove to have been a turning point for the blogosphere, for this was to be the poll that would be won and lost on the internet, but of course that was the political dog whose bark transpired to be more of a whimper.

Thus there was no Obama-style internet-based groundswell, and last year's mini-hysteria over the Daniel Hannan video viral perhaps demonstrated the rather inward-looking perspective of the blogosphere and Web 2.0 generally, at least insofar as that the vast majority of those who decide elections - the public generally and floating voters in particular - still haven't heard of the Tory MEP.

Hence the election was won and lost not in the blogsphere, on Facebook or via Twitter, but by way of good old traditional door-knocking, leafleting, the MSM generally and, of course, the new leaders' debate format on the old television medium. But voters generally still don't 'get' the internet as far as politics is concerned, and this seems unlikely to change fundamentally, in the medium-term at least.

So perhaps the realisation now is that the blogosphere's ability to change the world is limited. As a non-partisan I recall a discussion last year when I was pointing out how difficult it is for independent candidates to get their message across during election campaigns in view of limited resources for canvassing and leafleting, not to mention the difficulty of attracting the attention of the MSM. My view on this was pooh-poohed on the basis that future elections would be won and lost online, and to that extend the internet would act as a leveller. Of course, I would have liked to have been proved wrong on that point, but unfortunately this was not to be. In fact on the eve of the election top Scottish blogger Jeff Breslin - of SNP Tactical Voting fame - wrote a particularly perceptive and indeed modest piece on the likely impact of the blogosphere, in which he said: "Let’s face it, blogging is enjoyable but irrelevant, self-indulgent but inconsequential."

That perspective is probably even more sceptical than my own, but in the Scottish context perhaps the biggest impact the internet had on the general election was when Labour candidate Stuart MacLennan was sacked over a series of injudicious Tweets which abused both political opponents and members of the wider public.

Thus the lack of electoral impact last May - and indeed the fact that the internet often appears more of a political liability than an asset - seems unlikely to endear the medium to prospective bloggers.

Moreover, these more recent events probably merely serve to cement the impression that the blogosphere's impact seems likely to remain limited, and also that there's a potential downside that can bite bloggers on the bum.

Of course, few people who start writing a blog are likely to see their aspirations fulfilled - we all want to have the impact of Iain Dale or Guido Fawkes but, of course, only a very small number will go on to enjoy a high profile. However, in the early days at least, success seemed attainable - getting published in the MSM was a pipe dream, but anyone can blog, and the entire world population and their dogs are sure to come flocking to mine!

Er, no, and like the prospect of winning the National Lottery, initial enthusiasm has given way to more realistic expectations. Thus many established bloggers eventually give up or wither on the vine, while prospective new blood can adopt a more rational perspective and is often consequently deterred. And to a large extent even the Guidos and Dales require an element of MSM crossover to exert any kind of influence on the real world - ie that outside the blogosphere bubble - thus in many ways it's back to square one.

Moreover, the MSM has tried to neutralise the threat by jumping onto the blogosphere bandwagon, and to a large extent this crossover strategy has been successful. Indeed, in the purely Scottish context the Scotsman newspaper group's political blog - The Steamie - co-opted several of the country's top bloggers to join its MSM journalists as guests, but this experiment largely fizzled out, as has the blog more generally, perhaps on the realisation that the MacBlogosphere threat was overstated. Also, Scotland's only plausible equivalent to Iain Dale - the aforementioned Jeff Breslin - has not enjoyed a particularly happy relationship with the MSM on the occasions that he has featured there.

Which leads nicely on to the distinctly more negative aspects of blogging, and the MacBlogosphere suffered a mini-crisis towards the end of 2009 which proved terminal for some bloggers, and probably also detracted from the long-term attractiveness of the medium.

An uncompromising Nationalist blogger called Wardog attracted the attention of a MSM journalist. The semi-anonymous Wardog thought this was a hoax and confronted his interlocutor in the starkest terms, and consequently ended up the subject of a Sunday tabloid newspaper article which included lines like: "...spewing the whole lot out in a vicious PUKE of hatred." As a consequence the real-life Wardog terminated his employment as a part-time lecturer, and the episode may also have impacted on his own architectural practice.

Smelling blood, the tabloid journalist managed to uncover the identity of another controversial Nationalist blogger, who wrote The Universality of Cheese under a pseudonym. It transpired that Mark MacLachlan worked for Scottish Government cabinet minister Mike Russell. MacLachlan's employment was terminated, and Russell denied his claims that he had knowledge of the blog and threatened to sue. An unfair dismissal claim ensued, and police involvement resulted in a breach of the peace charge.

Cue a mini-panic among elements of the MacBlogosphere, with several either shutting up shop permanently or withdrawing until the dust settled. Indeed, one anonymous blogger who I had been on friendly terms with claimed to have reported me to the police after I advised that their identity could be ascertained from publicly available information, but needless to say I never heard a peep from the local constabulary, never mind being carried away in handcuffs!

But the upshot of these unfortunate interactions with the MSM is that blogging as a medium is likely to be considered less appealing. In short, when the MacBlogosphere comes to the attention of the public generally it's likely to be via the MSM and for purely negative reasons. In fact the MacLachlan incident was the main topic at one session of First Minister's Questions in the Scottish Parliament.

Of course, that's not to denigrate the usefulness of the blogosphere as a tool for political discourse but, like politics generally, a degree of realism has perhaps superseded the heady earlier days of democratic idealism afflicting (if that's the right word) bloggers.

Thus hopefully the forgoing has helped rationalise a thesis of decline, but what of the empirical evidence? Again, this isn't particularly scientific, but of the Top 50 blogs in the Scottish section of last year's Total Politics poll, a clear majority have either given up completely or curtailed their activities to such an extent that their site barely qualifies as a 'weblog'.

Of course, the nature of the beast means that bloggers come and go, and this might be considered a sign of a vibrant and healthy environment and perhaps be viewed in terms of "creative destruction", to use an analogy from market economics. However, the problem in the MacBlogosphere context seems to be that there is little sign of any nascent big hitters likely to replace the retiring or declining big beasts. And that's not to say that there aren't still good blogs starting up, but this analysis is about profile and impact rather than quality per se, and likewise there's little evidence to suggest that sufficient people care enough to provide any newcomer with a groundbreaking impetus in terms of support.

In this year's inaugural Scotblog awards the top newcomer spot went to Lallands Peat Worrier, and indeed his is a blog of some distinction. But probably too intellectual in stance and idiosyncratic in style - as the name might suggest - to be the next STV Tactical Voting, never mind a MacDale. Another top newcomer was the aforementioned The Universality of Cheese, which was resurrected once the media storm had subsided, but it too seems to have fizzled out somewhat, perhaps losing its edgy appeal along with the anonymity.

Of course, there are still new blogs appearing and there are vibrant sections of the MacBlogosphere slightly away from the mainstream which may buck the overall trend - the edgier Nationalist authors and the libertarian blogs, for example - and clearly there are other social media which compliment but may have detracted from blogging per se. Meanwhile, some prominent Scottish bloggers power on - most notably Tom Harris, but his focus is on Westminster, while the MacBlogosphere generally gravitates towards Holyrood - and many professionals have managed to successfully compliment their mainstream work with blogs, but it's probably the numerically dominant grassroots section that's perhaps exhibiting something of a crisis of confidence.

Of course, some have already dismissed my basic thesis as over pessimistic and point out that blogs will continue to come and go and the medium will evolve anyway, and that this is all to the good.

But perhaps the Scottish political blogosphere is like a Blair, Obama or Salmond - it all looks fantastic in theory, but the reality is slightly different. They don't change the world as hoped, disillusionment sets in, the whole thing fizzles out and is largely replaced by something else.