Regeneration to trump party politics?

Politically, it looked like a bit of a no-brainer: RAF Leuchars is smack bang in the middle of Lib Dem-land - otherwise known as North East Fife - with Sir Menzies Campbell as MP, Iain Smith as MSP and a raft of councillors. RAF Lossiemouth is SNP country, with Angus Robertson, the party's Westminster defence spokesman, as MP. Thus following last month's defence review it was thought that Leuchars was safe, while Lossiemouth faced the axe. That would certainly be politically convenient for the coalition in Scotland.

But today's Scotsman suggests that Leuchars is being reconsidered for the axe in favour of Lossiemouth, because it's considered that the latter is more reliant on the RAF base and would thus be more difficult to regenerate following a pull-out. However, the fate of RAF Marham in Norfolk is also part of the equation, with pressure being exerted by the local Tory MPs.

Politically it would therefore be interesting if Leuchars was jettisoned in favour of Lossiemouth and/or Marham - the SNP and Tories would win out, while it would represent a major kick in the teeth for the NE Fife Lib Dems. On the other hand, given the dominance of the Lib Dems in both the NE Fife Parliamentary seats it's difficult to rationalise a real political downside for the party in terms of retaining power - the Tories were decisive runners up in both seats last time round - although David Maddox's report does mention a Labour threat due to boundary changes.

Of course, closing RAF Leuchars would represent a significant blow to the local economy. Leuchars is effectively a small village surrounded by the airbase and MoD housing. Neighbouring Guardbridge is still reeling from the blow of the closure of the paper mill there, which was a major employer in the area, but this would be chickenfeed compared to losing the RAF base. And although Leuchars' proximity to Dundee (St Andrews is closer but in the opposite direction) is cited as a reason that the area would recover better than Lossiemouth from an RAF withdrawal, Dundee and its politicians seem unlikely to be enamoured by the prospect of it closing either.

But whether the economic aspect would predominate - or Tory prospects in Norfolk are considered more important than the Lib Dems' in Fife - the closure of Leuchars would certainly do nothing for the long-term prospects of a stable Westminster coalition.