A pro-independence majority Salmond's poisoned chalice?

With that latest opinion poll hinting at the possibility of an SNP majority - or at least a pro-independence majority with the Greens - Alan Cochrane is raising the spectre of an independence referendum and thus the break up of the Union.

This seems an unlikely prospect, since Cochers himself posits that the reason for the SNP's stratospheric poll ratings is that voters are being offered an "Eck lite" shorn of his "separatist tendencies", which of course is why he's being afforded the (qualified) support of prominent unionists like David Murray and the Sun newspaper.

To that extent any attempt to introduce a referendum Bill would be met with some hostility from voters and these "political ingénues", particularly given that this would be happening slap bang in the middle of the age of austerity - which will in itself be difficult enough for the next Scottish Government - and with the public presumably thinking other matters should be prioritised. Indeed, it should be recalled that in a recent BBC poll an independence referendum was well down the list of issues that voters considered important, not to mention the historic lack of support for independence per se.

Thus the probability is that Alex Salmond would lose any such referendum. Equally, he would be well aware of this and would thus in all probability once again bottle the issue, since a lost referendum - and hence the independence question put to bed for a generation - would not exactly be the kind of legacy sought by Mr Salmond. Therefore perhaps his biggest problem would be how to explain to the independence fundamentalists why attempting to push a Bill through parliament would be a bad idea.

Of course, a lot could happen between now and then, and the cuts agenda and the state of the economy generally both here and elsewhere could be fundamental to future support for or against an independent Scotland. After all, who could have objectively forecast the opinion poll swing to the SNP over little more than a handful of weeks?

Equally, the likelihood is that the final vote will be a lot closer than the latest poll suggests. During the latter part of the Thatcher era polls tended to underestimate her support because people were reluctant to admit to voting Conservative. Perhaps some of the apparent Lib Dem support hemorrhaging to the SNP stems from a reluctance to admit to supporting Nick Clegg's party, and their vote will hold up better on the day than the polls suggest. Likewise, the ridiculing of Iain Gray could mean that Labour support is understated, because no one likes to be seen standing up to the playground bullies. Of course, as per usual the poll could merely reflect short-term campaign factors such as Iain Gray's Subway moment and the SNP's late manifesto launch, thereby flattering the Nationalists, but there's no doubt that the momentum is theirs to either consolidate or lose.

Or maybe voters really do love Alex Salmond and think Clegg's party and Iain Gray's Scottish Labour are pants. And if that poll is anything like correct then it would certainly make for an exciting five year parliament insofar as the SNP would be in a better position to enact major legislation like that enabling an independence referendum.

But perhaps a pro-independence parliament could represent something of a poisoned chalice for Alex Salmond as regards a referendum Bill. But bring it on, I say!